An aircraft that is ascending following takeoff or descending on approach will have measurable kinetic energy and potential energy components, and these components will change with time in measurable, if not predictable, manners. Desirable energy states for both takeoff and landing can be determined from aircraft manufacturer guidance for these phases of flight. For example, where the approach occurs at an airport with an operable and reliable instrument landing system (ILS), the ILS system may provide data recorded on the aircraft to serve as a standard for comparing observed kinetic and potential energy components for an aircraft near the ground, below 2500 feet altitude and for an assumed straight path to a touchdown site. If the airport has no operable and reliable ILS, or if the aircraft is not near the ground, another mechanism for providing a standard for measurements or estimates is needed. On takeoff, where no electronic guidance comparable to the glide slope is available, the aircraft climb profile can be compared to manufacturer guidance or to observed performance for recorded aircraft departures from the particular airport.
The airline industry has become concerned with the problem of unstable aircraft approaches, because approach and landing accidents often begin as unstable approaches. An “unstable approach” is often defined as an approach where below a threshold altitude (1000 feet for IFR and 500 feet for VFR), the aircraft is not established on a proper glide path and with a proper air speed, with a stable descent rate and engine power setting, and with a proper landing configuration (landing gear and flaps extended). Airlines have developed approach procedures that call for abandonment of an approach that is determined to be unstable.
Development and testing of methods for detecting atypical flights by N.A.S.A. has revealed that high energy during an arrival phase (below 10,000 feet but before beginning an approach) is the most common reason for a flight to be identified as atypical or out of a statistically normal range. An atypical high energy arrival phase often corresponds to aircraft kinetic energy and/or potential energy that requires dissipation of 10–30 percent more energy than is required for a normal arrival phase. A normal arrival phase may correspond to about a 3 miles per 1000 feet elevation change (“3-to-1”) slope glide path and decelerating to an airspeed of about 250 knots during descent through 10,000 feet altitude to a standard reference speed around 2,500 feet altitude, when beginning an approach.
More than half of the high energy arrivals identified by atypicality analysis were brought under control within stabilized approach criteria; some of the remainder of the high energy arrivals were abandoned. In contrast, where these findings were used to define and search for a high-energy arrival exceedance, about three times as many exceedances were detected; and the resulting unstable approaches were found to occur more frequently than the recoveries.
It may be possible to identify, by historical analysis, a first class of high energy arrivals where recovery and subsequent stabilization is possible and relatively easy, and a second class of high energy arrivals in which recovery and subsequent stabilization is likely to be difficult or impossible. However, the present procedures for determining presence of a normal or reference (acceptable) approach include an electronic glide slope that extends linearly from the end of a target runway to the aircraft, whereas a normal aircraft approach path is curved and follows the electronic glide slope only from about 1,800 feet above the field to the end of the runway.
A 3-to-1 glide path slope, corresponding to decrease of 1,000 feet in altitude for every 3 nautical miles horizontal travel; is often desirable during an arrival phase. Air speed is 250 knots or less by regulation below 10,000 feet, and the aircraft decelerates to a lower speed before joining the approach path. These parameters are directly available but are unlikely to prove to be the only relevant parameters in determining whether a flight arrival phase is normal or other than normal.
When an energy component value or orientation component value for a completed flight of interest (referred to herein as a “target flight”) has been measured or observed and compared with a corresponding value for a nominal flight, this information should be displayed for possible remedial action on a subsequent flight. A flight operator may also benefit from a display of one or more predictions, based upon the observed or measured target FP values, of the behavior of this FP value over a short time interval extending into the future.
What is needed is a system, and corresponding display, that: (1) estimates at least one flight parameter (FP) value that is likely to occur, when an aircraft executes a contemplated maneuver along a modified flight path during an approach to touchdown, if the maneuver begins at the present or a subsequent location; (2) provides at least one measured FP value, during execution of the maneuver; and (3) compares the measured FP value with a corresponding FP value for a planned flight path under similar conditions. Preferably, the system should recommend at least one supplemental maneuver if it appears that the aircraft is unlikely to execute the original maneuver in an acceptable manner.